Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Bankruptcy beat: Chapter 10 and counting down

Could the industry be headed back to bankruptcy court? People like to say 'yes' anytime they see a trend that they don't like. Take, for instance, an opinion writer at The Wall Street Journal who said that the Justice Department was pushing the airlines toward the edge with its opposition to an antitrust immunity for the Star Alliance now that Continental is joining that group. Next thing you know, the airlines will be looking for a bailout like the auto industry, he says.
Maybe not, but let's not rule out another trip to the courthouse. Consider: United is now paying one of the highest interest rates anywhere on a financing it just did, while American had to beg its creditors to restructure a loan. The fall travel season looks anemic at best, and carriers, led by Southwest, have put autumn fares on sale already - months before they usually do. Consumer confidence is down again after a brief uptick, and people just don't want to spend money. Phil Baggaley from S&P says that we're still at Chapter Ten in the book of business but won't rule out Chapter Eleven as early as next winter.

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